The US is near the end of its flu season as the incidence of flu in Australia increases with the onset of winter in the southern hemisphere. Google has publishing trends which should give a good idea of what is ahead for Australia over the coming months – if the strain of flu does not mutate to something nasty in the next couple of months. My guess is that the incidence will at least double in August. [Update – it peaked early in July at about twice the level]. Given the numbers of cases of swine flu in the US (13000+) are about ten times that of Australia (already 1300+ in mid June 2009) and that the US population is about ten times bigger, it appears the impact of swine flu in Australia is going to be much worse than the US this winter in Australia.
Google Flu trends Australia, June 2009
Google Flu tends US, June 2009
Something that is missing from the Health Authorities is publicly telling people how to get the balance right between ignoring the issue and over-reacting.
To me, the heightened awareness is an opportunity to test systems of risk communication and training and ensure we are properly prepared if things turn nasty. It is also an opportunity to evaluate plans for businesses to remain operational. So far there is little evidence of this happening, but individual employers are over-reacting and sending anyone with the slightest sniffle home. This is playing havoc with the operation of businesses, particularly in the service industries, including education.
The medicalising of the situation is probably not helping – its as much a social and engineering problem as a health issue.
