COVID hospitalisation data from Victoria was presented in a raw chart by the ABC.
This data was uninterpreted and of little use to me. However a link was given to the raw data and I recalculated the ICU and Ventilator data as a percentage of those hospitalised and some interesting patterns emerged.
It is now obvious that the percentage of people being ventilated has steadily decreased over the last six months. The percentage in ICU has shown a similar decline, but with a big blip mid October 2021 till the end of 2021.
As some 90% of people are vaccinated (one, two, booster shots) and unvaccinated people are over-represented in ICU, the data is encouraging for me who recently had their booster. The reasons for the October 2021 ICU blip are less obvious.
It does appear that the Omnicron variant took off in Australia December 2021, a full month after the October 2021 ICU blip, so the change to Omnicron may somehow explain the blip. Changes to treatment protocols or increased ICU capacity may also help explain the blip.
Whatever the reason, I think we will all get COVID-19 in the next few months as Australia opens up and people become less fearful, despite increasing deaths. Hopefully Omnicron will give us some protection against future, nastier strains of COVID-19.
For me, I am wearing a P2 mask with an exhaust valve – not a surgical mask, as it gives me some 15 times the protection. I buy the cheapest P2 mask packs in Bunnings. I also try to social distance and limit being indoors with others and definitely do not do risky activities like fly.
For me:
- Double vaccinated with booster – risk reduction 30x
- Being outdoors – good clean air – risk reduction 100x
- Social Distancing 1.5 m – risk reduction 10x
- PPE (P2 Mask) – risk reduction 30x
Overall risk reduction about 1 million. I suspect this is overly optimistic as I do have some closer social contact with friends.
