This blog is not intended as advice. It is for educational and research purposes only. Read this disclaimer first if you want to read this post.
Australia and New Zealand are both island states but well connected to the world with airlines and shipping. Many of the COVID-19 cases in Australia are linked to visiting cruise ships.
In the early days of the pandemic, the Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison was dismissive and indicated he would still go to the “footy”, but he eventually realised the pandemic was serious and started listening to the experts. In New Zealand the Prime Minister Jacinda Adern shut down the country to a higher level than Australia and is now looking at some relaxation.
In UK, the Prime Minister Boris Johnson very publicly declared he would continue to shake hands and eventually caught COVID-19 and was very ill. In the US, President Trump appears to still be in denial and seems to attack anyone he can including his top health advisor and the WHO.
A naive analysis of the countries, just comparing populations and COVID-19 deaths on 21 April 2020 is startling.
| Metric | AU | US | NZ | UK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 25,169,000 | 327,352,000 | 4,930,000 | 66,647,112 |
| Ratio of populations | 1 | 13 | 0.20 | 2.6 |
| COVID-19 deaths | 67 | 40,690 | 12 | 16,095 |
| Expected deaths | 67 | 871 | 13 | 177 |
It is remarkable that the deaths in Australia and New Zealand scale almost perfectly with population, despite many deaths in Australia being linked to cruise ships. It may suggest that the more severe controls in NZ were not justified.
If Australian (or NZ) controls had been applied in the US, only 871 deaths would have been expected or 47 times less. Could the 39,819 excess deaths be attributed to the US leadership?
Similarly in UK, only 177 deaths would be expected or 91 times less. Could the 15,918 excess deaths could be attributed to the UK leadership?
The real test will be in the manner of scaling back of controls and getting reliable infection data to guide policy. My guess is there will be an impatience to return to normal and deaths will soar in any country that does not have wise leaders. In Australia, Prime Minister Morrison is now talking “lives vs livelihoods”.
