This blog is not intended as advice. It is for educational and research purposes only. Read this disclaimer first if you want to read this post.
We continue to get placations from our politicians that things under control. This is a lie. Prepare for the worst. Sorry.
Johns Hopkins University has an excellent interactive COVID-19 Dashboard showing COVID-19 statistics for the world. It is undated daily. The US has just overtaken Italy and China to be the COVID-19 hot spot in the world.
Below is the confirmed cases in Australia on 25 Mar 2020. The data should be updated in a few hours. As Australia decided to ration testing, these numbers are a gross underestimate, but the direction of the trend is most likely correct.
I had hoped the small glitch on 23 March was beginning to show Australia was getting things under control. This is not the case. However we are unlikely to be as bad as the US who are still in a bizarre denial.
The US government agencies have been good at telling it as is is. Past estimates of needs for the US for Influenza Pandemics are chilling. The estimates in the 400 page a 2005 Pandemic Influenza Plan by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services is quite explicit:
I suspect the number of deaths in the US will exceed one million, but it could be much higher, as health care is for the rich and the poor will get nothing and will become a tsunami of contagion.
The population of the US is 327 million and Australia 24.6 million. This gives a scaling factor of 13.3. The table below compares the US and Australian situation taking the most optimistic data and rounding the US severe pandemic ventilator number up, as the US population has increased in 15 years. There are reports that the small number of ventilators in Australian ICU’s will double to 4000. This increase is under by at least a factor of 10.
If you think your tax dollars have been used to help you when things go bad, think again. In Italy, doctors have had to ration ventilators. If you an older Australian and have medical conditions it would be prudent to get your affairs in order.
It is good to see that the Australian Government has started to talk to Ford about making a few, but the attempt is too late and pathetic. And I thought Ford made cars. Your better bet may be becoming friendly with a good vet, as veterinary ventilators are the same as used for people.
